Liu et al reported a model for predicting decline in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) following therapy with trastuzumab. The authors are from Peking University in China.
Patient selection: woman with breast cancer being treated with trastuzumab
ABSDELL is based on the first letter of the 7 predictors.
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 20 to 90 years
(2) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter, from 10 to 45
(3) systolic blood pressure (SBP) in mm Hg, from 90 to 160
(4) diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in mm Hg, from 45 to 95
(5) E-wave in cm/s, from 30 to 150
(6) left ventricular end systolic diameter (LVESD) in mm, from 20 to 42
(7) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) as a decimal fraction, from 0.4 to 0.8
points for age =
= 55.41 - (0.616 * (age))
points for BMI =
= (2.19 * (BMI)) - 21.91
points for systolic blood pressure in mm Hg =
= (1.429 * (SBP)) - 128.571
points for diastolic blood pressure in mm Hg =
= 140.22 - (1.476 * (DBP))
points for E-wave =
= (0.33 * (Ewave)) - 9.9
points for LVESD =
= (1.6 * (LVESD)) - 32
points for LVEF =
= 137.2 - (171.5 * (LVEF))
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 437
value of X =
= (0.0008452 * ((score)^2)) - (0.181 * (score)) + 8.324
3-year probability of decline in LVEF =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The c-index is 0.88.
