Meek et al evaluated several simple criteria seen on admission of a patient with gallstone pancreatitis. These can help to identify a patient at risk for severe complications. The authors are from Harbor-UCLA Medical Center.
Patient selection: gallstone pancreatitis
Outcome: severe complications requiring ICU care (mechanical ventilation, pneumonia, hypotension, sepsis DIC, coma, GI stress ulcer with bleeding, etc)
A blood glucose >= 8.3 mmol/L (150 mg/dL) is the best single admission predictor. This has a sensitivity of 79% and specificity of 79% with negative predictive value of 95%.
Other simple predictors:
(1) WBC count >= 14,500 per microliter (sensitivity 50%, specificity 81%)
(2) BUN >= 12 mg/dL (sensitivity 71%, specificity 44%)
(3) heart rate >= 100 beats per minute (sensitivity 36%, specificity 86%)
