Description

The logistic regression method can be used to predict mortality in alcoholic liver disease by looking at significant predictors for mortality.


 

Parameters:

(1) hemoglobin as percent of normal

(2) serum albumin in g/dL

(3) encephalopathy score

 

logistic regression score =

= ((-0.025) * (hemoglobin as percent normal)) - (1.56 * (albumin in g/dL)) + (1.03 * (encephalopathy score)) + 6.0

 

where:

• Hemoglobin is expressed as a whole number.

• The "normal" hemoglobin used for calculation is lower limit of reference range; an alternative would be the mean of the reference range.

• The encephalopathy score is 1, 2 or 3.

 

Interpretation

Score

% mortality

-5.4 to -4.0

4%

-3.9 to -2.6

5%

-2.5 to -1.2

11%

-1.1 to 0.2

33%

0.3 - 1.6

80%

1.7 - 3.0

100%

 

where:

• The percent mortality is estimated from Figure 6, page 902.

 


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