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Bedside Risk Formula of Aust et al for Predicting 30-Day Surgical Mortality

Purpose: To evaluate the 30-day mortality risk for a surgical patient using the bedside risk index of Aust et al.

Description

Aust et al developed a bedside risk formula for predicting 30-day mortality in surgical patients. This is a simplified version of formulas based on logistic regression analysis (see previous section). The authors are from the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio.


Parameters:

(1) serum albumin in g/dL

(2) ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) patient classification (from 1 to 5, see above)

(3) age of the patient

(4) cancer diagnosis

(5) emergency surgery

(6) difficulty or complexity of surgery

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

cancer diagnosis

none

0

 

present

1

emergency surgery

no

0

 

yes

1

surgery difficult or complex

no

0

 

yes

1

 

risk index =

= ((age of the patient in years) / 40) - (serum albumin in g/dL) + (ASA classification) + (points for cancer diagnosis) + (points for emergency surgery) + (points for surgical difficulty) - 5

 

Risk Index

30-Day Mortality

-4

1%

-3

4%

-2

12%

-1

25%

0

50%

+ 1

75%

 

When this data is analyzed in JMP"

 

percent mortality (as a whole number from 0 to 100) =

= (3.1786 * ((index)^2)) + (24.4214 * (index)) + 48.0429

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC (c index) was 0.82.


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10