Payne et al reported the Cambridge Multimorbidity Scores. One model uses 37 conditions and second model with a subset of 20 conditions. The authors are from the University of Bristol, University of Cambridge, RAND Corporation and University College London at the Royal Free.
Outcomes:
(1) mortality
(2) primary care consultation
(3) unplanned/emergency hospital admission
(4) general outcome
|
Mortality |
PCC |
UHA |
GO |
|
|
hypertension |
-1.88 |
0.83 |
11.29 |
0.09 |
|
anxiety/depression |
6.88 |
2.15 |
44.33 |
0.47 |
|
painful condition |
16.3 |
3.41 |
82.13 |
0.87 |
|
hearing loss |
-3.72 |
0.96 |
7.73 |
0.07 |
|
irritable bowel syndrome |
-0.77 |
1.71 |
7.46 |
0.18 |
|
asthma |
-2.45 |
1.34 |
21.47 |
0.18 |
|
diabetes |
9.83 |
3.84 |
53.95 |
0.71 |
|
prostate disorders |
-10.02 |
1.26 |
5.13 |
0.01 |
|
thyroid disorders |
-0.83 |
0.93 |
1.24 |
0.08 |
|
coronary heart disease |
4.29 |
1.49 |
68.05 |
0.46 |
|
chronic kidney disease |
16.47 |
0.97 |
51.24 |
0.51 |
|
diverticular disease |
-10.09 |
0.77 |
9.6 |
-0.02 |
|
chronic sinusitis |
-0.19 |
1.11 |
4.88 |
0.13 |
|
atrial fibrillation |
22.93 |
5.98 |
105.78 |
1.3 |
|
constipation |
34.58 |
3.16 |
64.91 |
1.03 |
|
stroke or TIA |
20.41 |
1.53 |
88.15 |
0.77 |
|
COPD |
42.29 |
3.4 |
129.18 |
1.41 |
|
connective tissue disorder |
0.08 |
3 |
27.45 |
0.4 |
|
cancer |
62.28 |
2.65 |
103.69 |
1.5 |
|
peptic ulcer disease |
5.69 |
0.53 |
17.66 |
0.2 |
|
alcohol problems |
11.42 |
0.81 |
81.19 |
0.55 |
|
substance misuse |
2.79 |
1.01 |
61.41 |
0.38 |
|
psoriasis or eczema |
-1.46 |
1.88 |
22.3 |
0.25 |
|
blindness and low vision |
1.16 |
0.33 |
24.38 |
0.15 |
|
heart failure |
42.26 |
2.86 |
70.44 |
1.12 |
|
dementia |
122.92 |
1.87 |
158.14 |
2.46 |
|
psychosis/bipolar disorder |
6.64 |
2.22 |
71.24 |
0.58 |
|
epilepsy |
17.34 |
2.05 |
107.94 |
0.85 |
|
inflammatory bowel disease |
-0.45 |
2.63 |
49.3 |
0.44 |
|
peripheral vascular disease |
15.21 |
0.87 |
60.09 |
0.53 |
|
anorexia or bulimia |
8.54 |
0.86 |
36.01 |
0.34 |
|
chronic liver disease |
22.22 |
1.27 |
77.03 |
0.72 |
|
migraine |
-4.04 |
1.12 |
4.65 |
0.07 |
|
learning disability |
10.92 |
1.15 |
55.75 |
0.47 |
|
bronchiectasis |
5.65 |
2.69 |
84.15 |
0.66 |
|
multiple sclerosis |
8.77 |
2.18 |
94.29 |
0.69 |
|
Parkinson’s disease |
40.46 |
3.48 |
104.13 |
1.29 |
score for each outcome =
= SUM(weights for each condition)
Interpretation:
• minimum score for mortality: -35.9
• maximum score for mortality: 558.33
Performance:
• The various areas under the ROC curve is shown in Table 4.
