Wang et al reported a score for predicting mortality in a patient with severe pancreatitis. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Changhai Hospital, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai Institute of Pancreatic Diseases, Singapore Management University and China Europe International Business School.
Patient selection: acute pancreatitis
Parameters:
(1) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(2) blood glucose in mmol/L
(3) serum LDH in IU/L
(4) serum CRP in mg/L
(5) heart rate in beats per minute
(6) extent of pancreatic necrosis in percent from 0 to 100
Parameter
Finding
Points
serum creatinine
<100
0
>= 100
1
blood glucose
< 12
0
>= 12
1
serum LDH
< 380
0
>= 380
1
serum CRP
< 65
0
>= 65
1
heart rate
< 100
0
>= 100
1
pancreatic necrosis
0
0
1 to 29%
1
30 to 49%
2
50 to 70%
3
> 70%
4
where:
• The cutoffs either overlap or exclude values. The table was modified to adapt to these.
total score =
= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 9
• A score >= 4 indicates severe disease.
• A score >= 6 indicates increased risk for in-hospital mortality.
Performance:
• The Youden index for mortality was 0.56.
• The Youden index for severe pancreatitis was 0.53.
To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.
