Peetluk et al reported a nomogram for predicting unsuccessful outcomes for a patient treated for pulmonary tuberculosis. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United States and Brazil.
Patient selection: pulmonary tuberculosis, receiving standard antituberculous therapy
Unsuccessful outcome: death, treatment failure, regimen switch, incomplete treatment or not evaluated
Parameters for nomogram:
(1) hemoglobin in g/dL, from 5 to 40
(2) HIV status
(3) drug use
(4) diabetes mellitus
(5) age in years, from 18 to 55 years
(6) years of education, up to 20
(7) tobacco use
points for hemoglobin =
= 114.286 - (2.857 * (hemoglobin))
points for years of education =
= 18.2 - (0.91 * (years))
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
HIV status
|
negative
|
0
|
|
|
positive
|
11.1
|
|
drug use
|
never
|
0
|
|
|
former
|
8
|
|
|
current
|
19
|
|
diabetes
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
10.6
|
|
age
|
18 to 24.99 years
|
17.4
|
|
|
25 to 34.99
|
9.6
|
|
|
35 to 44.99
|
6.2
|
|
|
45 to 55
|
0
|
|
tobacco use
|
never
|
0
|
|
|
former
|
8.8
|
|
|
current
|
10.1
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 188.5
value of X =
= (0.06264 * (score)) - 8.718
risk of unsuccessful outcome =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.77.
