Klein et al reported a clinical prediction tool for the risk of relapse or recurrence of depression. The authors are from multiple institutions in The Netherlands.
Patient selection: history of recurrent depression
Parameters:
(1) number of past depressive episodes
(2) Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology - Self Report (IDS-SR) score
(3) severity of last depressive episode
(4) treatment
Parameter
Finding
Points
number of past depressive episodes
2
0
3 or 4
13
>= 5
26
IDS-SR score
severity of last episode
mild or moderate
0
severe
13
treatment with Preventive Cognitive Therapy (PCT)
yes
-5
no
0
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -5
• maximum score: 80 or more
Total Score
Recurrence within 2 Years
< 35
37%
35 to 50
55%
> 50
72%
Performance:
• The C-statistic is 0.56, which is suboptimal.
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