McHenry et al reported a clinical prediction rule for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in a patient with Crohn's Disease. The authors are from Washington University, University of Cincinnati, and University of California San Diego.
CPN-CD = cliinical prediction rule for NAFLD in Crohn's Disease
Parameters:
(1) duration of Crohn's disease in years
(2) race or ethnicity
(3) sex
(4) age in years
(5) presence of risk factors (dyslipidemia, hypertension, and/or diabetes)
(6) current therapy with azathioprine or 6-mercaptopurine
(7) serum ALT in IU/L
(8) body mass index in kg per square meter
Parameter
Finding
Points
duration of CD
< 15 years
0
>= 15 years
0.668
race or ethnicity
Black
-1.996
other
0
sex and age
female and >= 50 years
1.232
other
0
risk factors
absent
0
present
0.956
therapy with azathioprine or 6-mercaptopurine
no
0
yes
0.871
serum ALT
< 20 IU/L
0
20 to 39.9 IU/L
1.794
>= 40 IU/L
2.213
BMI
< 27.5 kg per sq m
0
27.5 to 34.9
1.062
35 to 37.49
1.884
>= 37.5 kg per sq m
2.768
logit for CPN CD =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 3.336
probability of NAFLD =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (logit))
Interpretation:
• A risk < 20% was considered low risk, while >= 50% as high risk.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.76.
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