Van Staa et al reported scores for predicting the long-term risk for fractures in post-menopausal women. One score predicts the risk for femur/hip fractures. The authors are from multiple universities in The Netherlands, Belgium and England.
Patient selection: female >= 50 years of age
Outcome: 5-year and 10-year risk for femur/hip fractures
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) fracture history and age
(3) fall history and age
(4) body mass index (BMI) in kilograms per square meter
(5) smoker
(6) chronic disease
(7) recent use of CNS medication
(8) history of early menopause
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
age in years |
50 to 59 years |
0 |
|
|
60 to 69 years |
13 |
|
|
70 to 79 years |
24 |
|
|
80 to 89 years |
35 |
|
|
>= 90 years |
40 |
|
fracture history and age |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes and 50-59 years |
12 |
|
|
yes and 60 to 79 years |
8 |
|
|
yes and >= 80 years |
5 |
|
fall history and age |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes and 50 to 79 |
10 |
|
|
yes and >= 80 years |
4 |
|
BMI |
< 20 kg per square m |
6 |
|
|
20 to 25.9 |
0 |
|
|
>= 26 kg per square m |
-5 |
|
smoker |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
2 |
|
chronic disease |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes without recent GP visit or hospitalization |
2 |
|
|
yes with recent GP visit or hospitalization |
5 |
|
recent use of CNS drug |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
6 |
|
history of early menopause |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
7 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 8 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -5
• maximum score: 86
• The higher the score the greater the risk.
|
Score |
5-Year Risk |
|
-5 to 10 |
< 0.26% |
|
10 to 50 |
(0.0003092 * ((score)^3)) - (0.01618 * ((score)^2)) + (0.3372 * (score)) - 1.867 |
|
> 50 |
> 13.5% |
|
Score |
10-Year Risk |
|
-5 to 10 |
< 0.52% |
|
10 to 50 |
(0.0005332 * ((score)^3)) - (0.02691 * ((score)^2)) + (0.5666 * (score)) - 3.076 |
|
> 50 |
> 24.8% |
Specialty: Surgery, orthopedic
