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Choi's Logistic Model

Purpose: To predict the outcome of a comatose patient based on clinical findings, using Choi's logistic model.

Description

This model predicts a comatose patient's likely outcome, based on pupillary light reflexes, age and the best score for the motor component of the Glasgow Coma Scale.


 

The outcome is read from one of three separate graphs, depending on the pupillary light reaction (present in both eyes, absent in one eye, absent in both eyes). The x-axis is the motor component of the Glasgow Coma Scale and the y-axis is the patient's age, with the outcomes shown as curves separating the area.

 

Outcomes:

(1) good recovery

(2) moderate disability

(3) severe disability

(4) vegetative or dead

 

Limitations:

• patients with motor scores for the GCS of 6 were not included

• patients with motor scores for the GCS of 1 are not shown on the graphs; this is only an issue for when the papillary light response is present in both eyes, as a vegetative-death state can be inferred in the other 2 scenarios

 

Data Extraction from Graphs (page 383)

 

Pupillary light response present in both eyes

Motor Score

veg/dead

severe

moderate

good

2

age >=17

14<=age<17

N/A

age <14

3

age >=28

25<=age<28

N/A

age <25

4

age >=43

41<=age<43

40<=age<41

age <40

5

age >=65

N/A

50<=age<65

age <50

 

Pupillary light response absent in one eye

Motor Score

veg/dead

severe

moderate

good

2

all

N/A

N/A

N/A

3

age >=3

age < 3

N/A

N/A

4

age >=18

12<=age<18

N/A

age <12

5

age >=40

N/A

32<=age<40

<32

 

Pupillary light response absent in both eyes

Motor Score

veg/dead

severe

moderate

good

2

all

N/A

N/A

N/A

3

all

N/A

N/A

N/A

4

age >=2

age < 2

N/A

N/A

5

age >=19

N/A

11<=age<19

age < 11

 


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10