Song and Jeong reported a risk model for predicting colonization of a patient in the intensive care unit (ICU) with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. The authors are from Pusan National University in South Korea.
CREP is an abbreviation for Carbapeneam, resistant, Enterobacteriaceae, prediction.
Patient selection: ICU
Parameters:
(1) isolation of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO)
(2) number of days of cephalosporin administration
(3) number of days of carbapenem administration
(4) APACHE II score on admission
Parameter
Finding
Points
isolation of MDR bacteria
no
0
yes
1.606
days of cephalosporin
< 15
0
>= 15
1.347
days of carbapenem
< 15
0
>= 15
0.98
APACHE II score
< 21
0
>= 21
0.544
X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 2.821
probability of colonization with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.80.
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