Gong et al identified predictors of biliary atresia in a neonate. The authors are from Sichuan University, Guangzhou Medical University and affiliated institutions in China.
Patient selection: neonatal cholestasis
Predictors of biliary atresia from logistic regression model:
(1) clay-colored stool (OR 3.5)
(2) elevated serum GGT (OR 16.5)
(3) abnormal gallbladder (OR 5.6) on ultrasonography
(4) triangular cord (TC) sign positive on ultrasonography (OR 11.5)
Parameters for decision tree:
(1) serum GGT in U/L
(2) triangular cord sign
(3) gallbladder
Serum GGT
Triangular Cord
Gallbladder
Percent Atresia
<= 184 U/L
NA
NA
14%
> 184 U/L
yes
NA
80%
> 184 U/L
no
normal
0%
> 184 U/L
no
abnormal
62%
Performance:
• The authors state that the area under the ROC curve is 0.91.
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