Predictor of Functional Outcome in Patient with Early Rheumatoid Arthritis

 

Endpoint: probability of moderate to severe functional outcome

 

Analysis: multivariate logistic regression

 

Parameters:

(1) Carstairs deprivation index

(2) functional grade at baseline

(3) functional grade at 1 year

(4) HAQ at baseline

(5) HAQ at 1 year

(6) hemoglobin at baseline in g/L

(7) DAS28 at 1 year

(8) Larsen index at baseline

 

Parameter	Finding	Points
Carstairs index	1	0
	2	-0.247
	3	0.363
	4	0.548
	5	0.685
functional grade at baseline	I	0
	II	0.592
	III or IV	0.568
functional grade at 1 year	I	0
	II	0.689
	III or IV	1.905

 

points for HAQ at baseline

= (HAQ at baseline) * 0.532

 

points for HAQ at 1 year

= (HAQ at 1 year) * 0.894

 

points for hemoglobin =

= (hemoglobin in g/L) * 0.015

 

points for Larsen at baseline =

= (Larsen score) * 0.013

 

points for DAS28 at 1 year =

= (DAS28) * 0.138

 

X =

= SUM(points for all 8 parameters) - 5.647

 

probability of severe disease =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1)*X))