Gulati et al evaluated exercise capacity for asymptomatic women based on age. The ability of a woman to meet age-specific exercise norms has prognostic significance. The authors are from multiple hospitals in the United States and Australia.
Exercise capacity was measured on an exercise treadmill.
Patient Group
Exercise Capacity in METS
all asymptomatic women
(-0.13 * (age in years)) + 14.7
active women
(-0.16 * (age in years)) + 17.9
sedentary women
(-0.12 * (age in years)) + 14
where:
• MET = metabolic equivalent
observed exercise capacity as percent of predicted =
= (actual exercise capacity in METS) / (predicted METS for age) * 100%
difference between observed and predicted exercise capacity =
= (observed exercise capacity in METS) - (predicted for age)
Interpretation:
• The risk of death for a woman with an exercise capacity >= 85% was half that of a woman with an exercise capacity < 85%.
Difference in METS
HR for All Cause Mortality If Asymptomatic
HR for All Cause Mortality If Symptomatic
< 0
2.6
3.3
0 to 3
1.7
1.89
> 3
1
1
where:
• HR = hazard ratio
• The two types of risk prediction are quite different. A difference > 3 METS would be seen in a person who is physically active. The 85% of predicted level at age 55 (6.4 METs) is a difference of -1.2 METs from the predicted (7.6).
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