Iden et al reported the EXPO score for predicting prolonged postoperative care. This can aid in preoperative patient preparation and planning. The authors are from University Medical Center Schleswig-Holstein, Kiel University and Friedrich-Ebert Hospital in Germany.
Patient selection: surgical, age >= 18, excluding ASA V, first procedure only
Parameters:
(1) ASA status from I to IV
(2) physical exercise status in METs
(3) conducted surgery
Parameter
Finding
Beta Coefficient
ASA status
I
0
II
0.4
III
2.32
IV
4.56
exercise status
< 4 MET
1.26
>= 4 MET
0
surgery
minor miscellaneous
0
intermediate miscellaneous
1.78
miscellaneous major
4.37
vascular
1.20
hip or knee arthroplasty
1.27
urogenital
1.61
thoracic with OLV
2.32
upper abdominal
2.95
endovascular aortic repair
3.51
large ENT tumor
3.83
non-cardiac with planned ICU
6.79
cardiac
7.11
value of X =
= SUM(beta coefficients) - 5.14
probability of extended postoperative care =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.96.
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