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Predictive Model for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Associated with Viral Hepatitis B

Purpose: To predict 3 month mortality in a patient with acute-on-chronic liver failure and viral hepatitis B using the model of Sun et al.

Description

Sun et al developed a logistic regression model for predicting outcome for a patient with acute-on-chronic liver failure associated with viral hepatitis B. These can help to identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple hospitals in China.


 

Patient selection: acute-on-chronic liver failure in a patient with viral hepatitis B

 

Parameters:

(1) hepatorenal syndrome

(2) HBeAg status

(3) cirrhosis

(4) serum albumin in g/L

(5) prothrombin activity as a percent from 0 to 100

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

hepatorenal syndrome

absent

0

 

present

1

HBeAg

negative

0

 

positive

1

cirrhosis

absent

0

 

present

1

 

X =

= 1.4053 + (1.2069 * (points for cirrhosis)) + (3.6017 * (points for hepatorenal syndrome)) - (1.1555 * (points for HBeAg)) - (0.1003 * (serum albumin)) - (0.042 * (percent prothrombin activity))

 

probability of 3 month mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10