The authors are from Hospital Huriez Lille and multiple other hospitals in France.
Patient selection: alcoholic hepatitis
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) serum albumin on Day 0 in g/L
(3) evolution of serum total bilirubin in µmol/L between Day 0 and 7 (not defined but presumably value on day 0 minus the value on day 7)
(4) renal insufficiency (serum creatinine > 1.3 mg/dL or > 115 µmol/L)
(5) serum total bilirubin on Day 0 in µmol/L
(6) prothrombin time in seconds
X =
= (0.147 * (albumin)) - (0.101 * (age)) + (0.0165 * (evolution in bilirubin)) - (0.206 if renal insufficiency present) - (0.0065 * (bilirubin Day 0)) - (0.0096 * (prothrombin time)) + 3.19
probability of 6 month survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.89.
The authors also present a version for use of the INR, but the coefficient in the equation is the same as for the prothrombin time.
Limitations:
• There is variation in different methods for serum creatinine, serum total bilirubin and prothrombin time.
