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Mayo Risk Score in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

Purpose: To use a model from the Mayo Clinic to predict survival in a patient with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC).

Description

The Mayo Risk Score can be used to predict survival in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). A liver biopsy is not needed for its calculation, which is an advantage over other prognostic systems. The score can help in the selection of patients  for orthotopic liver transplantation.


Parameters used for model:

(1) age in years

(2) serum bilirubin

(3) serum albumin

(4) prothrombin time

(5) edema and/or diuretic use

 

Calculation of the Risk Score (R)

 

R =

= (0.871 * (LN(serum bilirubin in mg/dL))) - (2.53 * (LN(serum albumin in g/dL))) + (0.039 * (age in years)) + (2.38 * (LN(prothrombin time in seconds))) + (0.859 * (edema score))

 

where:

• LN = logarithm base e (natural logarithm)

 

Edema and Diuretic Status

Edema Score

no edema and no diuretic therapy for edema

0

edema present for which no diuretic therapy given

0.5

edema resolved with diuretic therapy

0.5

edema present despite diuretic therapy

1.0

 

Calculation of Survival

 

survival for "t" more years =

= (survival of patient with risk score of 5.07) ^ (EXP (R - 5.07))

 

where:

• 5.07 is the mean score for the combined Mayo data set

 

"t" years

probability for survival of patient with risk score 5.07 for "t" years

1

0.97

2

0.941

3

0.883

4

0.833

5

0.774

6

0.721

7

0.651

 


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10