Beretta et al reported a model for predicting mortality for a patient with systemic sclerosis. The authors are from multiple institutions in Europe and the United States.
Patient selection: systemic sclerosis
Parameters:
(1) renal involvement
(2) age of the patient in years
(3) sex
(4) DLco as percent of predicted
(5) FVC as percent of predicted
Parameter
Finding
Points
renal involvement
no
-8.3
yes
99.7
age
< 45 years
-67
>= 45 years
21.1
sex
female
-10.1
male
53.1
DLco
> 55% of predicted
-17
<= 55% of predicted
31.1
FVC
>= 70% of predicted
-10.2
< 70% of predicted
36.4
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -112.6
• maximum score: 241.3
X =
= (0.0198 * (score)) - 0.136
probability of 5-year mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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