Clayton et al developed a risk model for prediction of death, myocardial infarction and stroke in a patient with stable angina. This can help identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the ACTION trial representing multiple investigators in Europe.
Patient selection: stable angina
Outcomes: acute myocardial infarction, stroke and/or death
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) gender
(3) left ventricular ejection fraction in percent
(4) smoking history
(5) white blood cell count
(6) diabetes mellitus
(7) glucose and diabetes
(8) serum creatinine
(9) history of a previous stroke
(10) angina frequency
(11) angiography
(12) lipid lowering therapy
(13) QT interval on ECG
(14) systolic blood pressure
(15) number of drugs taken for angina
(16) history of previous myocardial infarction
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
---|---|---|
age in years |
<= 60 years of age |
0 |
|
> 60 years of age |
0.055 * ((age) – 60) |
gender |
female |
0 |
|
male |
0.16 |
left ventricular ejection fraction |
>= 60% |
0 |
|
< 60% |
0.034 * (60 – (LVEF)) |
smoking history |
never |
0 |
|
quit |
0.12 |
|
current |
0.60 |
white blood cell count |
<= 5,000 per µL |
0 |
|
> 5,000 per µL |
0.068 * ((WBC in thousands) –5) |
diabetes mellitus |
no |
0 |
|
non-insulin dependent |
0.13 |
|
insulin dependent |
0.85 |
glucose and diabetes |
<= 100 mg/.dL and no diabetes |
0 |
|
> 100 mg/dL and no diabetes |
0.0072 * ((glucose) – 100) |
|
<= 100 mg/dL and diabetes not insulin dependent |
0 |
|
> 100 mg/dL and diabetes not insulin dependent |
0.0032 * ((glucose) – 100) |
|
insulin dependent |
0 |
serum creatinine |
< 1.15 mg/dL |
0 |
|
>= 1.15 mg/dL |
0.078 * ((creat) – 1.15) / 0.1 |
previous stroke |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
0.53 |
angina frequency |
less than once per week |
0 |
|
>= 1 episode per week |
0.22 |
angiography |
not done |
0.11 |
|
>= 3 vessels diseased |
0.25 (left main counts as 2) |
|
0 or 1 or 2 |
0 |
lipid lowering therapy |
no |
0.21 |
|
yes |
0 |
QT interval |
< 430 ms |
0 |
|
>= 430 ms |
0.23 |
systolic blood pressure |
< 155 mm Hg |
0 |
|
>= 155 mm Hg |
0.21 |
drugs for angina |
none |
0 |
|
1 |
0.13 |
|
2 |
0.26 |
|
>= 3 |
0.39 |
history of previous MI |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
0.4 |
risk score =
= SUM(points for all 16 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum risk score
• The higher the score the greater the risk of a complication within the next 5 years.
Risk Score |
Probability of Complication within 5 Years |
---|---|
0 to 3.0 |
(3.152 * ((score)^2)) - (0.614 * (score)) + 0.719 |
3.0 to 4.5 |
(31.8 * (score)) - 68 |
4.5 to 5.75 |
(-13 * ((score)^2)) + (153.1 * (score)) – 350.7 |
> 5.75 | 100% |
Purpose: To estimate the risk of cardiovascular complications in a patient with stable angina using the risk model of Clayton et al from the ACTION trial.
Specialty: Cardiology
Objective: risk factors, severity, prognosis, stage, complications, selection
ICD-10: I20, I21,