Model of Donati et al for Predicting Mortality Following Surgery

Description

Donati et al reported a model for predicting mortality following a surgical procedure. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Marche Polytechnic University and University La Sapienza in Italy.

Patient selection: adult undergoing a surgical procedure

Parameters:

(1) ASA, from 1 to 5

(2) age in years

(3) severity of surgery (Johns Hopkins Surgical Grade, from 1 to 3)

(4) mode of surgery (elective, urgent, emergency)

Parameter	Points
ASA	1.09 * (ASA)
age in years	0.03346 * (age)

Severity	Points 1	Points 2	Subtotal Points
grade 1	0.5317 * -1	0.6739 * -1	-1.2056
grade 2	0.5317 * 1	0.6739 * 0	0.5317
grade 3	0.5317 * 0	0.6739 * 1	0.6739

Mode	Points 1	Points 2	Subtotal Points
elective	0.00477 * -1	0.8163 * -1	-0.82107
urgent	0.00477 * 1	0.8163 * 0	0.00477
emergency	0.00477 * 0	0.8163 * 1	0.8163

value of X =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 8.087

probability of death =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

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Model of Donati et al for Predicting Mortality Following Surgery

Description

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