Han et al reported a model for predicting 5-year risk of progression from pre-diabetes to diabetes for a Chinese adult. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Shenzhen Second People's Hospital in China.
Patient selection: age >= 20 years, prediabetes, Chinese
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 20 to 100
(2) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square m
(3) fasting plasma glucose in mmol/L
(4) serum triglycerides in mmol/L
(5) serum HDL cholesterol in mmol/L
(6) serum ALT in U/L
(7) family history of diabetes
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Parameter
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Points
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age in years
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(0.6475 * (age)) - 12.95
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BMI
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(2.857 * (BMI)) - 42.857
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fasting glucose
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(65.46 * (glucose))-366.58
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serum triglyceride
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1.191 * (triglyceride)
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serum HDL cholesterol
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0.39602 * (HDL cholesterol)
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serum ALT
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0.163 * (ALT)
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family history
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15.94 if yes, else 0
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score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
* maximum score: 417.73
value of X =
= (-0.0001794 * ((score)^2)) - (0.0022 * (score)) + 2.927
5-year risk of progression to diabetes =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X)))
The major driver for risk is the fasting plasma glucose.
When the results of the equation is compared to the nomogram, the results from the nomogram are lower.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.81.
