Han et al reported a model for predicting 5-year risk of progression from pre-diabetes to diabetes for a Chinese adult. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Shenzhen Second People's Hospital in China.
Patient selection: age >= 20 years, prediabetes, Chinese
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 20 to 100
(2) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square m
(3) fasting plasma glucose in mmol/L
(4) serum triglycerides in mmol/L
(5) serum HDL cholesterol in mmol/L
(6) serum ALT in U/L
(7) family history of diabetes
|
Parameter
|
Points
|
|
age in years
|
0.01994 * (age)
|
|
BMI
|
0.08802 * (BMI)
|
|
fasting glucose
|
2.01709 * (glucose)
|
|
serum triglyceride
|
0.03675 * (triglyceride)
|
|
serum HDL cholesterol
|
0.39602 * (HDL cholesterol)
|
|
serum ALT
|
0.00498 * (ALT)
|
|
family history
|
0.49350 if yes, else 0
|
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
5-year risk of progression to diabetes =
= 1 - (0.9999994^EXP(X))
The major driver for risk is the fasting plasma glucose.
When the results of the equation is compared to the nomogram, the results from the nomogram are lower.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.81.
