Model of Hoi et al for Calculating the Probability of High Disease Activity (HDA) in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE)

Description

Hoi et al reported a model for predicting high disease activity in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) The authors are from Monash University and Murdoch Children's Research Institute in Australia and Merck KGaA and EMD Serono in Germany

Patient selection: SLE

Outcome: high disease activity (SLEDAI-2K >= 10)

NOTE: The units for the various parameter and handling of race are guesses. These are not specified in the paper or its references.

Parameters:

(1) serum albumin in g/L

(2) serum CRP in mg/L

(3) serum C3

(4) serum C4

(5) absolute neutrophil count in 10^9/L

(6) ESR in mm in first hour

(7) urine protein to creatinine ratio (UPCR)

(8) gender

(9) race

(10) age in years

Parameter	Finding	Points
serum albumin		-0.084 * (albumin)
serum CRP		0.016 * (CRP)
serum C3	normal	-1.792
	low	0
serum C4	normal	-1.442
	low	0
absolute neutrophil count		0.036 * (ANC)
ESR		0.004 * (ESR)
UPCR		2.492 * (UPCR)
gender	male	0
	female	0.658
race	Asian	0
	Caucasian	-0.001
	other	-0.002
age		-0.019 * (age)

value of X =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 2.042

probability of HDAS =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X)

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.829.

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Model of Hoi et al for Calculating the Probability of High Disease Activity (HDA) in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE)

Description

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