Model of Ioannou for Predicting Graft Survival in a Liver Transplant Recipient with a Liver Disease Other Than HCV

Description

Ioannou developed a model for predicting graft survival after liver transplantation in patients with end-stage liver disease secondary a condition other than HCV. The author is from the University of Washington in Seattle and the Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Health Care System

Parameters – Donor Characteristics:

(1) age of the donor in years

(2) ethnicity of the donor

(3) gender of the donor

(4) cold ischemia time in hours

Parameters – Recipient Characteristics:

(5) body mass index (BMI)

(6) age

(7) UNOS urgency category

(8) gender

(9) race and ethnicity

(10) diabetes

(11) MELD score

(12) serum albumin

(13) recipient’s liver disease

Donor Parameter	Finding	Points
ethnicity	white	0
	black	0.23
	Hispanic	0.17
	other	0.37
gender	male	0
	female	0.11
cold ischemia time	< 6.4 hours	0
	6.4 to 8.79 hours	0.09
	8.8 to 11.29 hours	0.10
	11.3 to 14.29 hours	0.22
	14.3 to 59.99 hours	0.41

Recipient Parameter	Finding	Points
body mass index	15 to 24.99	0
	25 to 29.99	-0.10
	30 to 34.99	-0.12
	35 to 39.99	-0.17
	40 to 54.99	0.26
age	18 to 42.99	0
	43 to 49.99	-0.02
	50 to 56.99	0.03
	57 to 62.99	0.10
	>= 63	0.21
UNOS urgency	UNOS 1	0.17
	other	0
gender	male	0
	female	-0.06
ethnicity	white	0
	black	0.12
	Hispanic	-0.12
	other	-0.25
diabetes	absent	0
	present	0.24
serum albumin	>= 3.3 g/dL	0
	2.8 to 3.29	0.02
	2.4 to 2.79	0.03
	2.1 to 2.39	0.19
	< 2.1	0.22
liver disease	alcoholic cirrhosis	0
	hepatitis B	-0.24
	primary biliary cirrhosis	-0.37
	cryptogenic cirrhosis	-0.17
	other	-0.13
	hepatocellular carcinoma or cholangiocarcinoma	0.35

X =

= (0.000147 * (((age in years)^2) – 1444)) + (0.0176 * ((MELD score) – 14)) + SUM(points for the other 3 parameters)

hazard ratio =

= EXP(X)

survival for the graft at time t) =

= (baseline survival at time t) ^ (hazard ratio)

Time Period	Baseline Survival
1 year	0.88
2 years	0.85
5 years	0.77

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Model of Ioannou for Predicting Graft Survival in a Liver Transplant Recipient with a Liver Disease Other Than HCV

Description

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