Jeong et al reported a model for predicting in-hospital mortality for a patient with alcoholic cirrhosis who is admitted from the Emergency Department. The authors are from Gyeongsang National University in South Korea.
Patient selection: alcoholic cirrhosis admitted through the Emergency Department
Parameters:
(1) MELD score
(2) serum lactate in mmol/L
(3) serum albumin in g/dL
(4) serum CRP in mg/L
(5) infection
Parameter
Finding
Points
MELD score
0.112 * (MELD)
serum lactate
0.066 * (lactate)
serum albumin
-1.056 * (albumin)
serum CRP
0.01 * CRP
infection
no
0
yes
0.752
score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 2.016
probability of in-hospital mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (score)))
Score
Odds Ratio for In-Hospital Mortality
< -3.0
1
-3.0 to -2.01
5.4
-2.0 to -1.01
9.2
-1.0 to -0.01
23.3
>= 0
118
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.87.
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