Description

Jeong et al reported a model for predicting in-hospital mortality for a patient with alcoholic cirrhosis who is admitted from the Emergency Department. The authors are from Gyeongsang National University in South Korea.


Patient selection: alcoholic cirrhosis admitted through the Emergency Department

 

Parameters:

(1) MELD score

(2) serum lactate in mmol/L

(3) serum albumin in g/dL

(4) serum CRP in mg/L

(5) infection

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

MELD score

 

0.112 * (MELD)

serum lactate

 

0.066 * (lactate)

serum albumin

 

-1.056 * (albumin)

serum CRP

 

0.01 * CRP

infection

no

0

 

yes

0.752

 

score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 2.016

 

probability of in-hospital mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (score)))

 

Score

Odds Ratio for In-Hospital Mortality

< -3.0

1

-3.0 to -2.01

5.4

-2.0 to -1.01

9.2

-1.0 to -0.01

23.3

>= 0

118

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.87.


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