Kilic et al developed a model for estimating the risk of pneumonia following cardiac surgery. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the Johns Hopkins University.
Patient selection: status post cardiac surgery
Outcome: postoperative pneumonia
Parameters
(1) age in years
(2) chronic lung disease
(3) peripheral vascular disease
(4) cardiopulmonary bypass time in minutes
(5) intraoperative red blood cell transfusion
(6) pre- or intra-operative aortic balloon pump
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
age in years |
< 65 years of age |
0 |
|
|
>= 65 years of age |
3 |
|
chronic lung disease |
none |
0 |
|
|
mild |
7 |
|
|
moderate |
11 |
|
|
severe |
12 |
|
peripheral vascular disease |
absemt |
0 |
|
|
present |
5 |
|
cardiopulmonary bypass time |
<= 100 minutes |
0 |
|
|
> 100 minutes |
5 |
|
intraoperative red blood cell transfusion |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
1 |
|
pre or intra-operative aortic balloon pump |
absent |
0 |
|
|
present |
7 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 33
• The higher the score the greater the risk for postoperative pneumonia.
risk of postoperative pneumonia in percent =
= (0.002636 * ((score)^3)) - (0.05471 * ((score)^2)) + (0.6735 * (score)) + 0.8143
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.76.
Specialty: Infectious Diseases
