Mulder et al reported a predictive model for deep surgical site infections after colorectal surgery. The authors are from the University of Utrecht, Amphia Hospital (Breda), and University Medical Center Utrecht.
Patient selection: status post colorectal surgery
Exclusion: wound class dirty or infected
Outcome: deep surgical site infection (deep incisional or organ/space infection within 30 days of surgery)
Parameters:
(1) wound class
(2) reoperation
(3) readmission
(4) number of postoperative days in the hospital
(5) death
Parameter
Finding
Points
wound class
contaminated
0.890
clean-contaminated
0
reoperation
no
0
yes
3.037
readmission
no
0
yes
1.489
number of postoperative days
0.085 * (number of days)
death
no
0
yes
1.127
X =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters) - 5.234
probability of deep surgical site infection =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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