Park et al reported a model for predicting in-hospital mortality for a very low birth weight infant. The authors are from Konkuk University, Asan Medical Center and University of Ulsan.
Patient selection: very low birth weight infant (criteria not defined, but typically less than 1,500 g)
Exclusion: infants dying within 24 hours of birth
Parameters:
(1) amount of amniotic fluid
(2) total gestation in days
(3) Apar score at 1 minute. from 0 to 10
(4) intubation for initial resuscitation
(5) birth weight in grams
(6) base excess of initial blood gas (within 1 hour of birth)
total gestation in days =
= MIN(((weeks)*7) + (residual days),196)
base excess =
= MIN((base excess), 0)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
amount of amniotic fluid
|
oligohydramnios
|
0.185
|
|
|
normal
|
0
|
|
|
polyhydramnios
|
0.964
|
|
total gestation
|
|
-0.047 * (days)
|
|
Apgar score at 1 minute
|
|
-0.111 * (score)
|
|
intubation
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.679
|
|
birth weight in grams
|
|
-0.003 * (weight)
|
|
base excess blood gas
|
|
-0.058 *(base excess)
|
X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 8.994
probability of death =
= 1 / (1 - EXP((-1) * X))
where:
• Normally the equation for probability is 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.87.
