Patient selection: admission general surgical ward, age 13 to 95 years
Outcome: serious complications within 30 days (Clavien grade 5, 6 or 7)
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) surgery location
(4) surgical acuity
(5) body region operated on
(6) weight loss over past 3 months
(7) ASA status
(8) smoking status
(9) pulmonary disease (dyspnea, abnormal chest radiograph)
(10) renal disease (serum creatinine >= 130 µmol/L, on dialysis, renal transplant)
(11) surgical complexity
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
age in years
|
13 to 39 years
|
0
|
|
|
40 to 69 years
|
0.5518
|
|
|
70 to 79 years
|
0.7855
|
|
|
>= 80 years
|
0.4343
|
|
sex
|
male
|
0.3216
|
|
|
female
|
0
|
|
surgery location
|
day-care surgery
|
-0.7485
|
|
|
other
|
0
|
|
surgical acuity
|
elective
|
0
|
|
|
urgent and planned
|
0.2080
|
|
|
emergency and urgent unplanned
|
0.6327
|
|
body region operated on
|
central part of body
|
0.6761
|
|
|
limbs
|
0
|
|
weight loss
|
< 10%
|
0
|
|
|
>= 10% (see Table 1)
|
0.6102
|
|
ASA
|
ASA 1
|
0
|
|
|
ASA 2
|
0.2889
|
|
|
ASA 3
|
0.7382
|
|
|
ASA 4
|
0.7526
|
|
|
ASA 5
|
1.2826
|
|
smoking status
|
current
|
0.2940
|
|
|
stopped less than 1 year ago
|
0.2940
|
|
|
stopped >= 1 year ago
|
0
|
|
|
nonsmoker
|
0
|
|
pulmonary disease
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.6444
|
|
renal disease
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.3668
|
|
surgery complexity
|
no surgery performed
|
-1.8841
|
|
|
minor
|
0
|
|
|
major
|
0.6699
|
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 3.6739
probability of serious complications =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.79.
