Model of Yu et al for Preoperative Prediction of Follicular Carcinoma in a Thyroid Nodule

Description

Yu et al reported a model for preoperative prediction of a follicular carcinoma presenting as a thyroid nodule. This can help in surgical planning for the procedure. The authors are from the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University in China.

Patient selection: thyroid nodule

Parameters:

(1) preoperative serum thyroglobulin concentration in ng/mL

(2) diameter of the nodule in cm

(3) calcifications

(4) nodule composition (totally solid vs any cystic)

(5) blood flow (? by ultrasonography)

Parameter	Finding	Points
serum thyroglobulin		0.01 * (thyroglobulin)
diameter		0.556 * (diameter)
calcifications	no	0
	yes	0.675
nodule composition	solid	2.355
	any cystic	0
blood flow	visible (blood flow)	1.072
	invisible (no blood flow)	0

value of X =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 9.787

probability of follicular carcinoma =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.94

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Model of Yu et al for Preoperative Prediction of Follicular Carcinoma in a Thyroid Nodule

Description

Specialty