Zheng et al reported a model for predicting contrast-induced nephropathy after exposure to a gadolinium-based contrast agent. The authors are from WenZhou Medical University in Zhejiang, China.
Patient selection: exposure to a gadolinium-based contrast agent
Parameters:
(1) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg, from 60 to 220
(2) fasting blood glucose in mmol/L, from 2 to 28
(3) serum albumin in g/L, from 20 to 55
(4) sex
(5) absolute neutrophil count in 10^9/L, from 0 to 22
(6) furosemide therapy
points for systolic blood pressure =
= 137.5 - (0.625 * (SBP))
points for fasting blood glucose =
= (3.846 * (glucose)) - 7.692
points for serum albumin =
= 94.286 - (1.715 * (albumin))
points for absolute neutrophil count =
= 1.705 * (count)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
sex
|
male
|
0
|
|
|
female
|
17
|
|
furosemide therapy
|
yes
|
0
|
|
|
no
|
17.5
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpreration:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 319.4
value of X =
= (0.04829 * (score)) - 9.436
probability of contrast-induced nephropathy =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-10 * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.
