Aviram et al reported 2 models for predicting the mode of delivery for a twin pregnancy. One was for overall risk and one for risk of cesarean delivery for the second fetus. The authors are from the University of Toronto, McMaster University, and Mount Sinai Hospital Toronto.
Patient selection: woman with twin pregnancy, 32 weeks of gestation or older
Parameters:
(2) nulliparity
(4) gestational age at birth in weeks
(5) induction of labor
(7) presentation of twin B
(8) Twin A sex
Parameter
Finding
Points
nulliparity
yes
-0.5141
no
0
gestational age
32 with 0/7 to 33 with 6/7
0
34 with 0/7 to 36 with 6/7
-0.7742
>= 37 with 0/7
-0.2930
induction of labor
no
0
yes
-0.6178
twin B presentation
cephalic
0
noncephalic
1.5231
twin A sex
female
0.5812
male
0
value of X =
= SUM(all of the beta coefficients) - 3.0665
probability of cesarean delivery of second twin =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.74.
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