Peaceman et al reported models for predicting death or cerebral palsy for a preterm infant who survives the neonatal period. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United States.
Patient selection: preterm (24 0/7 to 31 6/7), survives neonatal period
Outcome: death and/or cerebral palsy at 2 years of age
Parameters available prior to initial discharge:
(1) MgSO4 treatment group (loading dose of 6 grams IV, then 2 grams per hour; versus placebo)
(2) gestational age at birth in weeks
(3) IVH grade
(4) periventricular leukomalacia (PVL)
(5) sex
(6) neonatal hypotension (requiring volume expansion and/or vasopressor therapy)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Beta for Death or Moderate/Severe CP
|
Beta for Moderate/Severe CP
|
|
MgSO4 group
|
no
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
-0.3665
|
-0.5992
|
|
gestational age
|
|
-0.2968 * (weeks)
|
-0.302 * (weeks)
|
|
IVH grade
|
none
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
I or II
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
III or IV
|
1.666
|
1.6069
|
|
PVL
|
no
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
3.838
|
4.7433
|
|
sex
|
female
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
male
|
0.9182
|
0.7797
|
|
neonatal hypotension
|
no
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0
|
1.1885
|
value of X =
= SUM(beta-coefficients for death/CP) + 4.473
probability of death, moderate CP or severe CP
= 1 - (1/(1+EXP(X)))
value of y =
= SUM(beta-coefficients for CP) + 3.5226
probability of moderate or severe CP =
= 1 - (1/(1+EXP(Y)))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.84.
