Tesfa et al reported models for predicting birth asphyxia. One is a logistic regression model, and the second is a simple risk score. The authors are from Debre Tabor University in Ethiopia.
Parameters:
(1) premature rupture of the membranes (PROM)
(2) meconium aspiration
(3) fetal malposition
(4) prolonged labor
(5) preterm delivery
(6) tight nuchal cord
Parameter
Finding
Beta-Coefficients
PROM
no
0
yes
1.69
meconium aspiration
no
0
yes
1.14
fetal malposition
no
0
yes
1.53
prolonged labor
no
0
yes
1.29
preterm delivery
no
0
yes
1.34
tight nuchal cord
no
0
yes
1.16
value of X =
= SUM(beta-coefficients for all of the parameters) - 3.17
probability of birth asphyxia =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.89.
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