Description

Constantin et al reported a nomogram for predicting overall survival following emergency surgery for colorectal cancer. The authors are from Dunarea de Jos University, Carol Davila University, and affiliated hospitals in Romania.


Patient selection: emergency surgery for colorectal cancer

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) diagnosis

(3) macroscopic tumor invasion

(4) tumor resection

(5) revised cardiac risk index (RCRI), from 0 to 6

(6) lymphocyte to monocyte ratio LMR

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age

<= 63 years

0

 

> 63 years

15.42

diagnosis

hemorrhage

0

 

obstruction

28.86

 

perforation

49.2

macroscopic invasion

no

0

 

yes

36.9

tumor resection

no

0

 

yes

34.44

RCRI

0

0

 

1

16.4

 

2

72.82

 

3

72.82

LMR

> 2.96

0

 

<= 2.96

100

 

where:

• Scores for the RCRI over 3 are not given. For the implementation will use score for 3.

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameter)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 308.74

 

value of X =

= (-0.0001406 * ((score)^2)) - (0.01197 * (score)) + 2.42

 

probability of 3 year overall survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.83.


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