Feng et al reported a model for predicting cirrhosis in a patient with autoimmune hepatitis. The authors are from Fujian Medical University in China.
Patient selection: autoimmune hepatitis
Parameters:
(1) serum C4 in g/L, from 0 to 0.45
(2) splenomegaly
(3) liver stiffness in kPa, from 0 to 30
points for serum C4 =
= 52.3 - (116.2 * (C4))
points for liver stiffness =
= 3.333 * (liver stiffness)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
splenomegaly
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
15.1
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 167.4
value of X =
= (0.1098* (score)) - 8.9
probability of cirrhosis =
= 1 / (1+ EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.90.
