Ge et al reported a model for predicting survival for a patient with a metastatic nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor. This can help to identify a patient who requires more aggressive management. The authors are from Shaoxing Central Hospital in China.
Patient selection: metastatic nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine carcinoma
Parameters:
(1) age at diagnosis
(2) sex of the patient
(3) histologic grade
(4) operation performed
(5) lymph node metastases
(6) marital status
(7) tumor size in cm
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
age at diagnosis |
< 60 years |
0 |
|
>= 60 years |
27.5 |
sex of the patient |
female |
0 |
|
male |
10.7 |
histologic grade |
well-differentiated |
0 |
|
moderately differentiated |
14.6 |
|
poorly differentiated |
84.6 |
|
undifferentiated |
87.7 |
operation performed |
yes |
0 |
|
no |
100 |
lymph node metastases |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
19.5 |
marital status |
married |
0 |
|
single |
11.4 |
|
unknown |
3.7 |
tumor size |
< 2 cm |
0 |
|
2 to 3.9 cm |
20.9 |
|
>= 4 cm |
25.1 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 294.2
• The higher the score the greater the mortality.
value of X =
= (-0.000061499 * ((score)^2)) - (0.0064766 * (score)) + 2.2278
probability of 5-year survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology