Description

Ge et al reported a model for predicting survival for a patient with a metastatic nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor. This can help to identify a patient who requires more aggressive management. The authors are from Shaoxing Central Hospital in China.


Patient selection: metastatic nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine carcinoma

 

Parameters:

(1) age at diagnosis

(2) sex of the patient

(3) histologic grade

(4) operation performed

(5) lymph node metastases

(6) marital status

(7) tumor size in cm

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age at diagnosis

< 60 years

0

 

>= 60 years

27.5

sex of the patient

female

0

 

male

10.7

histologic grade

well-differentiated

0

 

moderately differentiated

14.6

 

poorly differentiated

84.6

 

undifferentiated

87.7

operation performed

yes

0

 

no

100

lymph node metastases

no

0

 

yes

19.5

marital status

married

0

 

single

11.4

 

unknown

3.7

tumor size

< 2 cm

0

 

2 to 3.9 cm

20.9

 

>= 4 cm

25.1

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 294.2

• The higher the score the greater the mortality.

 

value of X =

= (-0.000061499 * ((score)^2)) - (0.0064766 * (score)) + 2.2278

 

probability of 5-year survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.


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