Guo et al reported a nomogram for identifying high-risk patients in China who should undergo CT lung cancer screening. The authors are from Zhengzhou University, Hunan Cancer Hospital, and Tianjin Medical University.
Patient selection: adult in China
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 40 to 74
(2) gender
(3) number of pack years smoking
(4) history of tuberculosis
(5) history of emphysema
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
40 to 44 years
1
45 to 49 years
0
50 to 54 years
35.8
55 to 59 years
63.8
60 to 65 years
69
65 to 69 years
81.7
70 to 74 years
100
gender
female
0
male
21.4
pack years smoking
0
1 to 29
12.7
30 to 49
19.4
>= 50
26.5
history of tuberculosis
no
0
yes
24.8
history of emphysema
no
0
yes
29.5
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 202.2
value of X =
= 7.692 - (0.02553 * (score))
probability of being lung cancer free at 5-years =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.74 in the training a validation cohorts.
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