Li et al reported a nomogram for predicting severe acute pancreatitis. This can help to identify a patient who should receive more aggressive management. The authors are from Shangluo Center Hospital in Shangluo, China.
Parameters (units not reported in article):
(1) absolute neutrophil count (ANC) in 10^9/L
(2) serum albumin in g/L
(3) blood glucose in mmol/L
(4) serum calcium in mmol/L
(5) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(6) blood urea in mmol/L
(7) serum procalcitonin, presumably ng/mL
points for absolute neutrophil count =
= 1.554 * (ANC)
points for serum albumin =
= 46.7 - (0.667 * (albumin))
points for blood glucose =
= (0.561 * (glucose)) - 1.121
points for serum calcium =
= 24.309 - (8.682 * (calcium))
points for serum creatinine =
= 0.156 * (creatinine)
points for blood urea =
= 1.415 * (urea)
points for serum procalcitonin =
= 1.429 * (procalcitonin)
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score 332.012
value of X =
= 0.1169 * (score)) - 11.21
risk of severe acute pancreatitis =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.89.
