Li et al reported a nomogram for predicting severe acute pancreatitis based on vital signs and laboratory values. This was used as part of a study on acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in acute pancreatitis. The authors are from Peking Union Medical College, Zhejiang University, Harbin Medical University, Sichuan University and affiliated hospitals in China.
Patient selection: acute pancreatitis
Parameters:
(1) heart rate in beats per minute, from 50 to 170
(2) respiratory rate in breaths per minute, from10 to 45
(3) serum calcium in mmol/L, from 1.0 to 3.6
(4) serum BUN (urea) in mmol/L, from 0 to 40
points for heart rate =
= (0.825 * (heart rate)) - 41.25
points for respiratory rate =
= (1.329 * (respiratory rate)) - 13.286
points for serum calcium =
= 80.58 - (22.38 * (calcium))
points for serum urea =
= 2.17 * (urea)
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 290.5
probability of severe acute pancreatitis =
= (0.009674 * (score)) - 0.7499
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.88 in the derivation and 0.90 in the validation cohorts.
