Liang et al reported a nomogram for predicting survival for a patient with myelodysplastic syndrome. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Lanzhou University, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Lanzhou University, and affiliated hospitals in China.
Patient selection: myelodysplastic syndrome
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 35 to 95
(2) percent blasts in the bone marrow, from 0 to 35 (high blast counts reflect AML)
(3) TP53 mutation status
(4) ASXL1 mutation status
(5) EZH2 mutation status
(6) ETV6 mutation status
points for age =
= (1.018 * (age)) - 35.642
points for bone marrow blasts =
= (1.814 * (percent)) + 23.024
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
TP53
|
wild type
|
32.8
|
|
|
mutation
|
80.7
|
|
ASXL1
|
wild type
|
32.8
|
|
|
mutation
|
54.9
|
|
EZH2
|
wild type
|
32.8
|
|
|
mutation
|
100
|
|
ETV6
|
wild type
|
32.8
|
|
|
mutation
|
84
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 154.4
• maximum score: 467.2
value of X =
= (-0.00127 * ((score)^2)) + (0.4402 * (score)) - 37.77
predicted 5-year survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve for 5-year survival was 0.93 in the training cohort but 0.75 and 0.73 for validation cohorts.
