Lin et al reported a nomogram for predicting the risk of delirium in a pediatric patient following cardiopulmonary bypass. The authors are from Zhejiang University in China.
Patient selection: pediatric patient status post cardiopulmonary bypass
Parameters:
(1) age in months, from 0 to 180 (15 years)
(2) SpO2 in percent
(3) absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) in 10^9/L, from 0 to 11
(4) therapy with diuretic
(5) therapy with midazolam
points for age =
= 34 - (0.1889 * (age))
points for SpO2 =
= 285.71 - (2.857 * (SpO2))
points for absolute lymphocyte count =
= 2.527 * (ALC)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
therapy with diuretic
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
13
|
|
therapy with midazolam
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
7
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 181.9
• The higher the score the greater the risk of delirium.
value of X =
= (0.0968 * (score)) - 4.504
risk of delirium =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.
