Nakaji et al reported a nomogram for predicting bleeding after endoscopic sphincterotomy in a patient on hemodialysis with choledocholithiasis. The authors are from multiple institutions in Japan.
Patient selection: choledocholithiasis and hemodialysis
Outcome: bleeding after endoscopic sphincterotomy
Parameters:
(1) platelet count per microliter
(2) INR
(3) hemodialysis duration in years
Parameter
Finding
Points
platelet count
< 120,000 per µL
70.4
>= 120,000 per µL
0
INR
<= 1.2
0
> 1.2
15.7
duration of hemodialysis
< 3 years
0
>= 3 years
100
total score =
= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 186.1
• There are only 6 combinations of the 3 parameters).
value of X =
= (0.01828 * (score)) - 3.75
probability of bleeding after endoscopic sphincterotomy =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.72.
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