Wang et al reported a nomogram for predicting the risk of lower extremity deep vein thrombosis in a patient receiving thrombolytic therapy for an acute ischemic stroke. Lower extremity DVTs are common in the acute phase of an ischemic stroke. The authors are from Wenzhou Medical University in China.
Patient selection: acute ischemic stroke, with thrombolytic therapy
Parameters:
(1) age of the patient in years, from 10 to 100
(2) serum indirect bilirubin in µmol/L, from 0 to 45
(3) serum homocysteine in µmol/L, from 0 to 70
(4) sex of the patient
(5) hypertension
(6) atrial fibrillation
points for age =
= (0.711 * (age)) - 7.111
points for indirect bilirubin =
= 0.9 * (indirect bilirubin)
points for homocysteine =
= 1.43 * (homocysteine)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
sex of the patient
|
male
|
0
|
|
|
female
|
8.7
|
|
hypertension
|
no
|
14.6
|
|
|
yes
|
0
|
|
atrial fibrillation
|
no
|
11.4
|
|
|
yes
|
0
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 239.24
value of X =
= (0.1202 * (score)) - 9.808
probability of early lower extremity DVT =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.83 for the derivation and 091 for the validation cohorts.
