You et al reported a nomogram for predicting the risk of thrombotic complications in a pediatric patient who has undergone a liver transplant. A patient at high risk may benefit from interventions to reduce the risk. The authors are from Sun Yat-sen University and affiliated hospitals in Guangdong, China.
Patient selection: pediatric liver transplant recipient
Parameters:
(1) cold ischemic time in minutes
(2) duration of surgery in minutes
(3) diameter of recipient's hepatic artery in mm
(4) diameter of donor's hepatic artery in mm
(5) diameter of portal vein anastomosis in mm
(6) diameter of donor's portal vein in mm
Parameter
Finding
Points
cold ischemia time
<= 360 minutes
0
> 360 minutes
81.7
duration of surgery
<= 540 minutes
0
> 540 minutes
100
recipient's hepatic artery
> 2.5 mm
0
<= 2.5 mm
63.5
donor's hepatic artery
> 2.0 mm
0
<= 2.0 mm
51.4
portal vein anastomosis
<= 3.8 mm
63.6
> 3.8 mm
0
donor's portal vein
<= 5.0 mm
85
> 5.0 mm
0
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 445.2
value of X =
= (0.0189 * (score)) - 5.455
risk of thrombosis =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.89 in the derivation and 0.86 in the validation cohorts.
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