Nomogram of Zhao et al for Predicting Survival of a Patient with Thymoma

Description

Zhao et al reported a nomogram for predicting survival of a patient with thymoma. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Fudan University in Shanghai.

Patient selection: thymoma (histology A, AB, B1, B2, B3)

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) stage

(3) size in cm

(4) surgery

(5) chemotherapy

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years	< 40 years	0.10
	40 to 49 years	0
	50 to 59 years	1.67
	60 to 69 years	5.25
	>= 70 years	10
stage	I or IIA	0
	IIB	2.85
	III or IV	6.91
	unknown	3.9
size in cm	< 6.6 cm	0
	>= 6.6 cm	1.59
	unknown	4.68
surgery	total resection	0
	debulking	2.47
	radical resection	2.65
	simple or partial resection	3.02
chemotherapy	no	0
	yes	2.29

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score:0

• maximum score: 26.9

• The higher the score the worse the survival.

value of X =

= (-0.0019783 * ((score)^2)) - (0.11536 * (score)) + 3.4661

probability of 5-year survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.71 in the resampling cohort and 0.75 in the validation cohort.

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Nomogram of Zhao et al for Predicting Survival of a Patient with Thymoma

Description

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