Zheng et al reported a nomogram for predicting multimorbidity in a middle-aged or older Chinese adult. The authors are from Southern Medical University and the Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences of Guangdong Higher Education Institutions for Collaborative Innovation of Health Management Policy and Precision Health Service in Guangzhou, China.
Patient selection: Chinese adult middle-aged or older (>= 45 years with 0 or 1 chronic disease)
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) an existing chronic disease
(4) number of hours of sleep per night
(5) physical activity (> 600 MET*minutes per week)
(6) regular alcohol use
(7) smoking
(8) body mass index in kg per square meters, from 5 to 50
(9) depression by CESD-10, from 0 to 30
points for BMI =
= (2.222 * (BMI)) - 11.111
points for depression =
= 1.4 * (depressive score)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
age
|
< 50 years
|
2.9
|
|
|
50 to 59 years
|
13.3
|
|
|
60 to 69 years
|
20.6
|
|
|
70 to 79 years
|
16.8
|
|
|
>= 80 years
|
0
|
|
sex
|
female
|
0
|
|
|
male
|
13.8
|
|
diseases
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
57.3
|
|
number of hours of sleep
|
< 7 hours
|
15
|
|
|
>= 7 hours
|
0
|
|
physical activity
|
no
|
7.8
|
|
|
yes
|
0
|
|
alcohol use
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
14.5
|
|
smoking
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
20
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score 324
value of X =
= (-0.00005.391 * ((score)^2)) - (0.009654 * (score)) + 2.506
7-year risk of survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The C-index is 0.70 in the training and 0.71 in the validation cohorts.
