Jiang et al reported 2 nomograms for predicting prognosis for a patient with acute pancreatitis. One nomogram predicts 30-day outcomes. The authors are from Tianjin Medical University in China.
Patient selection: acute pancreatitis
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) serum ALT in IU/L
(3) serum BUN in mg/dL
(4) RDW in percent
points for ALT =
= (0.039846 * (ALT))
points for BUN =
= (0.83333 * (BUN))
Parameter
Finding
Points
age
<= 70 years
0
> 70 years
20.2
RDW
<= 13.8
> 13.8
21.9
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 193.9
value of X =
= (-0.0001524 * ((score)^2)) - (0.01712 * (score)) + 3.29
probability of 30-day survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
probability of 30-day mortality =
= 1 - (survival)
To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.
Specialty: Gastroenterology
